The Thursday MLB schedule is full of afternoon stuff. What better way to spend your work day than by sweating baseball?
Today, there are seven games starting before sunset, and our analysts are on top of them, including a few bets on the first five substitutions and a single player prop.
Here are our top three bets on Thursday afternoon’s Major League baseball game.
MLB Odds and Options
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Will Boor: Defeating in a game with a powerful Dodgers attack seems intuitive, but some things work in our favor.
In part, we get a fixed number here, because Hunter Greene’s 5.26 ERA doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence. However, the hard-throwing right has reached 3.68 xERA, which means it has thrown better than the surface numbers show. Greene is also in the 73rd percentile in Hard-Hit, the 82nd percentile in xBA and the 87% percentile in K%.
It is also telling that Greene has lowered his ERA and WHIP every month this season, a sign that he is getting better and learning what it takes to succeed at that level. Yes, he gave up five rounds in his last start with five rounds, but all those races came through homer and he had only given up one of the 12 rounds in two starts.
Greene’s ERA is slightly more than halfway at home (4.91) than away (5.49) and has shown a good chance to beat Dodgers by scoring five goals in mid-April before the field runs out. gas sixth.
Not only do the metrics show that Greene is performing better, but the Dodgers are also playing without Mookie Betts. Yes, the line-up is still full, but Betts is obviously mega talented and there is always a drop when there is no player of his caliber.
If Greene can control the Dodgers attack, we should have a good chance of making money on that ticket, because Clayton Kershaw, whose 2.64 xERA is in the 80th percentile or more advanced metrics, should make it through. The Reds lineup, which is the last in many categories of attack.
The red bullpen is last in the league in the ERA and it’s quite possible that the Dodgers will be piling up late, so let Greene get through five shifts and get out while it’s still safe. The top five have hit 52% of both Dodgers and Reds games this season.
This line opened at 4.5 (+100), play it down to -120. I wouldn’t play it if it dropped to 4.
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Anthony Dabbundo: Jose Quintana has managed to avoid disaster on the hill at the moment of the MLB season, but I’m not convinced that his 3.66 ERA will last much longer.
Looking at the numbers behind him, he has the lowest K-BB% in his career, as he no longer generates as many shocks as he does at age 33. Despite the number of quarry zones in the 1940s, the percentage of Quintana squares in this zone is. has fallen below 35%. This means that he is dependent on getting a lot of chases, swings and misses outside the zone.
I am skeptical about how sustainable this strategy is for a pitcher with clearly below average stuff, just three pitches and a fast ball at 91 miles per hour.
The Quintana xERA 4.98 is a much better indicator of where it is as a thrower, and the Cubs lineup has enough power in the middle of the lineup to take advantage when Quintana is forced to enter the zone. His allowable barrel rate is well below average and the Cubs avoid chasing outside the hit zone.
Justin Steele is a much better starting thrower and I will support him in the first five shifts on Thursday afternoon. Its xERA 3.39 and the ability to avoid strong contact is much more impressive than the Quintana.
I would play it at -120 or better.
Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics
Jules Posner: Ramon Laureano broke 0-13 in his first shot on Wednesday night. He gets a pretty tempting game against Seattle Mariners’ Robbie Ray on Thursday afternoon.
Ray has struggled on the road this season and has delivered an average of 0.279 strokes to his right-handers in the last four starts. In addition, the right-wingers will throw 0.574 against Ray in his road start and nine of the 17 hits Ray has passed to the right-handers have gone to extra bases.
Hopefully Laureano can rely on Wednesday’s game and take advantage of Ray. In the last 24 games at home against the LHP, Laureano has achieved 0.333 with an ISO of 0.238. Overall, Laureano will hit 0.316 against LHP at home and 0.286 against LHP this season.
Another noteworthy thing is that he went 1-4 and 2 Ks against LHP in the last two games.
It is very likely that Laureano’s total bases will be a plus, so that should be a step. However, it could be played from -120 or better.
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