Boxscore Bits: June 23, 2022

Some thoughts on throwers from Tuesday’s games:

FOR BEGINNING

Business as usual: Nothing is needed

• Carlos Rodón, Pablo López, Zack Wheeler, Jon Gray, Luis Castillo (good enough v. LAD), Triston McKenzie (common problem bad start, no worries), Jordan Montgomery, Tyler Anderson, Michael Wacha (7 See 6 in IP too! ), Shane Baz (only 4.7 IP, but did well enough), Ross Stripling, Mike Clevinger, Sonny Gray (some expected setbacks), Adam Wainwright (it was bad but not panicy)

Significant gems: prominent who deserve extra attention

• Shohei Ohtani – the single best player in baseball (and it’s not even close) showed his net excellence in the last two days, making 13 on Tuesday and then 13 on Wednesday. I just don’t see any way he’s arguably the best player in baseball. He has definitely asked if you should use him in DH or Ps this year. He is ranked 16th and 15th in the auction calculator.
• Charlie Morton – Here Comes Morton! Seven innings gems (2 ER, 6 H, 20 Ks in 14 IPs) and four consecutive crossed-out games (40 Ks and 40% K% on June 25 IP) have brought his ERA back below 5.00. for the first time since 20 May. I still feel like he has a good chance of being Luis Castillo this year (7.22 ERA until May; 2.73 from June). Even during the April-May battles, he has shown a glance, usually with a few rounds for each start, but he could not avoid taking off (two in some starts). It gets a spicy 2-step, which will test how back he is traveling to PHI and CIN. I’ll definitely start with him, but not without nervousness.
• George Kirby – Kirby gave the NFBCers 9 ERs with 10 IPs immediately upon receipt, but they can barely remember this little bug now that he bounced back with 29 IPs 2.17 ERA and 1.03 WHIP 27 Ks and 2 Ws in five starts. . He is likely to be in the next starts in Biz as usual, unless he has a big deviation at either end. He will have a juicy 2-step against BAL and OAK at home next week.
• Keegan Thompson – Is Thompson getting ready to whip everyone again? After setting a WHIP of 1.38 ERA / 0.92 with 3 wins in 13 IPs, he began to gain attention in the fantasy leagues. He made his first start well enough after many took him (winning 5.3 IP / 3 ER), but the upcoming 2-stage BAL / NYY had plans for those ratios. Obviously, everyone rightly feared NYY starting, but he started 81% of the main events this week and reached a hot 24.32 ERA with just 3.7 IPs. This Yankees started on Sunday (0.7 IP / 3 ER) and dropped to 22 of the 47 major tournaments that night just in time to beat 12 IPs with 0.75 ERA and WHIP, including 16 Ks. He was strongly re-elected to the start of the PIT this week, but is now facing a CIN / BOS Stage 2. I’m too scared of a BOS to even start a CIN. Be careful.

Decent enoughA: Mostly biz as usual, but with a few comments

• Luis Garcia – Garcia has a third major problem with an OPS of 0.978 in those 58 PAs after 0.603 first passes and 0.582 second passes. He’s having a good season and I’m not very worried, but he may start to see more trips around the 5 IP mark if he doesn’t show that he can handle it more consistently for the third time. Even last year’s 0.832 mark would be a significant improvement.
• Eric Lauer – 5 ER is usually stupid, but he got 6 IPs and had 5 Ks. HR has been a big problem during his last three starts, 8 in 17.3 IPs after 8 in his first 56.7 IPs. Two trips also took place in the homes of WAS and CIN. He has clearly fallen to Lauer’s level and will probably live here for the rest of the season, which is perfectly fine.

Duds: The worst fantasy of the day with relevant weapons

• Lucas Giolito – Giolito will be much harder to hit this year and his desire for home runs has increased. It has a 2.1 HR / 9 and 20% HR / FB ratio, giving an ERA of 5.40 in 63.3 IP. 3.70 SIERA would be more encouraging if I thought that the staffing problem was unfortunate and that it was due to a significant regression. It may definitely drop from 2.1, but I’m not sure it will drop below 1.5 until we see his command improve. He still lacks bats (27% K, 13% SwStr), but he can be crushed every time he hits.
• Tarik Skubal – Three straight men (9.88 ERA / 2.04 WHIP) may be panicking, but there is a downgrade to HR (1 HR in each start) plus a couple of tough opponents in a trio (TOR, BOS). His season ERA is now 3.63 ERA. I am still encouraged by 1.13 WHIP, 21% K-BB and 0.7 HR / 9. I don’t sit near him, even if the trip to SF is on the tap.
• Carlos Carrasco – Going to a HOU is always difficult. He really came along just to say I wasn’t worried about it.
• Paul Blackburn – the first real bastard of the year. Four of the seven races took place in the nightmarish 5th shift, where he did not even register for the trip, opening 1B-HR-1B-2B before relieving and then allowing Domingo Tapia to score in two more Blackburn ledgers. We know regression is coming, but I would have thought it came last time at BOS, not home v. SEA-l. He will be in NYY / SEA next week, which is a really difficult decision. I sat with him a few weeks ago for HOU / BOS Stage 2 and I tend to do the same here. We play Blackburn with house money, so I don’t feel obligated to push him to places where I’m not comfortable. The rise is nothing to worry about. It’s not like it’s a crossed-out stud or something, so I doubt very much whether we’re leaving something like 6 points, 10 Ks or something else. I often say that if you can’t run them in two steps, they’re split. It’s not hard and fast where you MUST cut them, but you have to at least consider it. I have enough flexibility to sit in Blackburn and keep it, but I really wouldn’t blame anyone who doesn’t want to start him and decides to give it up.

STREAMER THURSDAY

Take a look at some of the weapons available to stream over the weekend.

• Zach Eflin in SD on Saturday – Machadota Padres’ composition would certainly be simpler, and although Eflin has a hiccup, it is one of the best weapons widely available over the weekend (20% Y !, 12% ESPN).
• Mitch Keller on Friday in TB – Rays’ attack has been brutal this month, ranking 27th in the wRC + against the right with a 26% K rate.
• Graham Ashcraft on Friday at SF – Scary collusion, but I like the speed of the earth caused by the power booster (97 miles per hour) (56%) and I think there are clues to the impact (10% of the SwStr on his L4 trips).
• Zach Davies v. DET on Saturday – 2.81 ERA / 0.97 Adding WHIP to your L5 28 See 32 IPs.
• Anthony DeSclafani v. CIN on Sunday – It’s hard to get back from IL, but I’d take a blow at home against the reds if I examined the wire.
• Alex Faedo at ARI on Saturday – Doesn’t sweat a hard trip in the BOS and would definitely be open to ARI here.
• Ryan Feltner at the MIN on Sunday – I like 19% of K-BB, but he didn’t take advantage of his trip to the MIA earlier this week, so there’s no guarantee just because he’s out of Coors.
• Rich Hill at CLE on Sunday – Hi, Mary, start on Sunday because you never know if you can get 2 IPs or 6 IPs. You shouldn’t kill your numbers and it can definitely be a blessing.