All 30 Major League Baseball teams will play 15 games of cards on Wednesday. There are a handful of games in the afternoon, but 11 Wednesday games start at 18.40 ET or later.
You will find my colleague Sean ZrilloPredictions for each MLB game in the Action Network (both on the PRO Projections tab and on the game pages) and in our Projection Center (which you should bookmark).
Follow all Anthony Dabbundo’s contributions to Action Network! Click here.
Here are some of my favorite corners and games I’m targeting on the MLB map on Wednesday night.
The Beltway series ends with a second game of two on Wednesday night as Washington’s Patrick Corbin takes on Baltimore’s right-hander with Tyler Wells.
I think I’ve bet on Wells almost every start of the season, and that won’t change on Wednesday night.
Wells has shown great leadership with a 5% walk rate and his ball profile is above average for MLB throwers. It is slightly better than the average in xwOBA, the allowable barrel rate and the heavy blow rate.
It does not have excessive strikethrough, but it has four available steps and most of them have above-average speeds. He does not cause much fluctuations and omissions, but is much higher than average when he makes the hunters hunt outside the zone. Washington is in 10th place in the chase rate, so Wells should be able to make a number of weak contacts.
Wells’ xERA is 3.66 and I’m pretty sure he’s in his young career at the moment under 4.00 ERA.
I think Corbin, his colleague, is no longer close to that. According to Eno Saris, a spokesman for The Athletic, Corbini’s fastest ball is one of the worst in baseball this season. Stuff + model which evaluates the shape and speed of the pitch.
Corbini’s defense hurt him with a two-out error in his final start, but he promised seven runs (not all) immediately after.
His slider used to be his most efficient square, but his odor on that square has been declining every year since 2019. His fast ball and drowning allow both xwOBAs to be 0.438 and 0.427, respectively.
You probably think the ERA was 6.59 due to the positive regression, but the underlying metrics haven’t been much better. It has a permissible barrel rate of more than 10% and a xERA of 6.34.
The quality gap in the original jugs points to me in only one direction – Baltimore.
Recommended bet: Orioles F5 ML -145 (-150 or better)
In his last start, Tarik Skubal was tough with five rounds for five races for Tigers. But the playground on the left has three well-established pitches and is arguably the most advanced baseball thrower of 2022.
At the age of 25, Skubal has turned its pitch mix into a more recessed / slider combination. It hides his mediocre fast ball and the results are impressive.
Hitters had 0.429 xwOBA against the fast ball last year, which he scored more than half the time. This season, his use of fast ball has dropped to 27.6%. Batsmen see it less and strike less. XwOBA is 0.341 and all other pitches are below 0.300.
His breakthrough rate has been stable in all three major league seasons, but he has halved his walking frequency from 8.2% in 2020 to 4.7% in 2022. Improved controls and the location of the square mean that it has many obstacles. less and his xERA has fallen from 5.58 last season to 2.95 this year.
His FIP (2.48) and xFIP (3.02) are also clear indications that the first half of the Skubal season is no accident.
Michael Wacha is an impressive story with his current 2.27 ERA, but is currently the main regression candidate. Wacha has promised an HR / FB rate of less than 10% and will leave 84% of the strikers failing, while allowing for a career-low 0.224 BABIP.
It is the triumvirate of regression indicators picked up in its metrics. Wacha has 4.25 xERA and 4.23 xFIP, his Stuff + is below average and his Pitching + is too close.
His K-BB% is actually lower than it has been in the last two seasons. No matter how bad the Detroit lineup is, I’m betting on the Tigers in the first five rounds.
Recommended bet: Tigers F5 ML +120 or better
After the first disappointing start to the 2022 season against Minnesota, Shane Baz scored six shifts against Baltimore.
Of course, Minnesota has a much better line-up than Baltimore, and his match with the Yankees will be the toughest challenge of his young season. But I trust Baz’s stuff here, which is as good as a baseball thrower.
When Baz went to the field for the first time in the big leagues at the end of last season, it’s important to remember how good he was.
The best starters of September by Pitching +, which takes away all the happiness and focuses on movement, cycling, spinning and the location of the squares:
– Eno Sarris (@enosarris) October 4, 2021
Baz’s sample for 2022 is too small to take anything from the first two beginnings. He had a bit of a problem with the command, but I don’t think that’s a permanent problem.
The price here is surprising +120 as a homeowner. Rays was close to +115 at home when Shane McClanahan confronted Gerrit Cole. Now they have a +120 slightly worse pitcher at home in Bazis, but are now facing a much worse pitcher for Jordan Montgomery’s Yankees.
Montgomery is a good mid-frequency starter with xERA fluctuating around 4.00 over the last three seasons. His leadership has been improved, but he will also be playing more balls this year, and BABIP, the lowest level of his career at 0.245, is unlikely to remain.
I’ll bet Tampa Bay on Monday and I’ll do it again. As Baz stabilizes closer to what his stuff expects, we won’t get as many good numbers for him in the coming weeks and months.
Recommended bet: Rays ML +110 or better
San Francisco and Atlanta have played two thrills in the first two games of their series after Atlanta left on Monday and the Giants won at 12:10 on Tuesday night.
Charlie Morton looked like old Morton against Chicago on Friday when he scored nine goals in seven innings. His breakthrough numbers have clearly improved in recent weeks, but the veteran right-winger is still struggling with difficult contact this year.
The bats hit him more, hit more balls in the air and the results have been suboptimal for Morton’s ball profile. Morton has lived his 40-year-old’s heart rate in the last three seasons, but that number has dropped to 37.5% this season. Its barrel rate is below average for the first time in the Statcast era and its 4.45 xERA is full-fledged higher than in the last two seasons.
Morton’s Stuff + rating has dropped a bit this year as he gets fewer exits with his best pitch, a bend ball. His breakthrough allowed xwOBA rose from 0.180 last year to 0.342 this year. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, but the beaters are clearly reading it this season.
At this point in his career, Carlos Rodon is a much better thrower. His stuff + rating is higher and his slider dominates.
Take one shot at the Cardinals – the elite against the left – and Rodon has promised two or fewer runs in 11 of the 12 starts. Only the Reds, who scored three goals, and the Cardinals, who scored eight, marked him significantly.
Atlanta has dominated left-handers this season (126 wRC +), but I’m a little skeptical about the distribution of predictability, given how much difficulty they had in 2021 (93 wRC +) and 2020 (100 wRC +).
It’s probably just statistical noise and the Braves will only be too moderate against the left in the future.
- Giants F5 ML +100 or better
- Giants ML +110 or better
Anthony Dabbundo’s contributions (June 22)
- Giants F5 inning (+100 or more)
- Giants ML (+110 or better)
- Rays ML (+110 or better)
- Tigers F5 innings (+120 or more)
- Orioles F5 innings -145 (-150 or more)
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